The Wide Awakes » The Avian Flu Threat Is Real

9/29/2005

The alarm over a possible bird flu (or avian flu) pandemic has been pretty well dismissed by the mainstream media in recent months, though you see the odd story here or there. In view of hurricanes Katrina and Rita there has been less and less interest among the American press in covering this story (while instead they shamelessly mis-covered the hurricanes). Trouble is, an avian flu pandemic would be a catastrophe that would unabashedly dwarf the human loss and disruption from all of this year’s international hurricanes and cyclones combined. Now with the oh-so-trustworthy headlines being snagged (again) by Roberts and DeLay, one wonders if there is hope for bird flu news to catch anyone’s attention.

When I first wrote on this topic, it was with venom directed toward China for her carelessness at having eliminated one of the few antiviral drugs from the international arsenal. But later I was only cautiously concerned with the chances for a full-blown pandemic. The days of such cautiousness are now long gone. Rick Moran at Rightwing Nuthouse is about the only blogger I know of who has kept a full-court press on this issue since it came to international attention earlier this year. He, of course, has been limited by the general dearth of news. In his latest post on bird flu, he reports with news links and commentary on how Jakarta, Indonesia is home to a nascent bird flu epidemic:

Previously, humans infected with the virus were found mostly in rural areas of Viet Nam and Thailand. The outbreak in Indonesia’s largest city means that essentially, we are now at the mercy of whatever evolutionary track the virus takes. At the moment, Bird Flu can only be spread from human to human by direct contact with an infected person and either their waste products or saliva, blood, or other infected secretions. At least, this is the best guess of the experts.

The problem with a Bird Flu outbreak in a city of 12 million people boils down to simple mathematics. Each time the virus infects another human it has the opportunity when reproducing itself to mutate – change its genetic code – so that instead of spreading by direct contact it would be possible to become airborne and spread via casual contact just like any other strain of flu.

It goes without saying that having 12 million chances for the virus to mutate is extremely worrying.

Some might call this alarmist and over-reaching, say that we’ve got plenty of other disasters and issues to deal with just now. And I’d call them idiots. Speaking with my Dr. Biologist hat on, I for one know that Mr. Moran is right to be very, very afraid. Do read his post and the entire Rightwing Nuthouse bird flu archive for particulars on the troubling logistics of attempting preventative treatment in even a city the size of Jakarta, let alone the whole planet.

With this backdrop, I praise The Washington Times for its avian flu one-two punch today: an editorial titled “Avian Flu, Bioterror and Washington” and a commentary by Sen. Bill Frist titled “The Threat of Avian Flu.” The themes that both articles drive home is one of a lack of preparedness, and not only at the infrastructural level but the governmental and legislative as well.

From the editorial:

…[T]he avian flu is just one of many potential biological problems — whether natural or man-made — that we must grapple with. To deal with the avian flu and the others — anthrax, smallpox and radiological threats, to name three — the United States must update the 2004 Bioshield law. That law was a good start, but not nearly enough.

[…]

On the avian flu, Mr. Frist lamented the lack of “an effective vaccine and a robust antiviral stockpile” in a Tuesday letter to Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt, noting that each problem is “complicated by a weakened domestic manufacturing capacity.”

The common theme here is that government is not doing enough to create favorable conditions for companies building the compounds we need. Clearly, these are all public goods which the national interest requires we produce. It’s time for Congress to create a stronger Bioshield program that creates the market needed to bring them into existence.

From Frist’s Op-Ed column:

At a glance, some may dismiss the avian flu virus: Only 59 people have died from it over the past two years and fewer than 120 have become infected. So far, humans infected with the avian flu have not transmitted it to other humans. Thus far all known human cases have happened far away.

But the avian flu may not remain trivial for long. The virus — known as H5N1 — changes very quickly. Humans have no natural immunity to it. And infected birds may be able to transit it before they show symptoms. Any virus with these characteristics could devastate the human population while causing massive economic and social chaos.

[…]

The avian flu poses a serious risk to our nation’s health and security. Every medical worker, public health specialist, parent, and, indeed, every citizen, needs to think about how we can confront it. Right now, preparing to face a pandemic should rank very high among our nation’s priorities. And, for the safety of its people, our nation needs to act now.

Frist puts it about as clearly and articulately as anyone in public service could, and with the authority of being a physician as well. Though neither our Surgeon General (we have a Surgeon General?) nor President Bush have spoken out on this matter so as you’d notice, at least Sen. Frist seems to have stepped up the pressure… even, God forbid, with the Katrina and Rita disasters still to sort out.

How many times can it be said: Mother Nature is one heckuva powerful force. We saw it in the mere winds and thermal energy converted into cyclonic powerhouses, equivalent to millions of megatons exploded every day that Katrina and Rita churned over the gulf. My prayer is that we don’t have to witness her resilience and strength yet again in the subtle beauty of a parasitic virus quite capable of mutating into an international catastrophe. To thwart this threat will, of course, require mankind to use it’s God-given brains and resourcefulness. We can’t begin to stop a hurricane, only guard against it. But we can at least work to prevent a global avian flu pandemic.

4 OCT UPDATE: Thank goodness, it seems that the U.S. is actually taking the avian flu threat seriously now.

Originally posted at TMH’s Bacon Bits

Said The MaryHunter @ 6:11 am | Permalink

4 Comments »

Great post.

If Bush thinks he got flack for hurricane response, what do you think the reaction would be if we find ourselves in a flu epidemic and people find out his administration has done jack crap for five years to get us ready for it?

Comment by Rick Moran — 9/29/2005 @ 6:26 am

Thanks Rick. You’ve got that right re Bush. Even if a pandemic occurred during a future administration, the fallout would be squarely on Bush’s legacy, just as the 9/11 fallout is beginning to settle on Clinton vis a vis Able Danger et al.

Bush can’t do everything, but he certainly could be doing more than he has regarding this threat. I believe that Frist is sincere, but also think he’s in CYA mode for his presidential bid. Smart move.

Comment by The MaryHunter — 9/29/2005 @ 6:50 am

Way overblown. Do you realize the amount of cases of drug resistant cough spreading tuberculosis is in California and Texas? Do you know how serious that is. Less than 120 people have died from the bird flu in 3 years. Mutating what? Do we see a huge mutating strain, NO. Is this countries poultry farms like the ones in China? NO. Way over blown. everyone likes this panic thing. Everyone gets into it. In addition, everyone has this idea that all birds carry it - THEY DO NOT!!! Not all species carry it. We worried about smallpox to the point of insanity 3 years ago, then anthrax, now the bird flu. Change it’s genetic code? What! Tell me, how many present day viruses are changing their genetic code on a rapid pandemic sense. That’s insane. How many woman are infected with TB in Asia right now, do you knwo becasue it’s beyond your wildest dreams. worrying about the bird flu is a waste

Comment by Steve Jenson — 4/18/2006 @ 12:59 pm

So you say, Steve, and I honestly hope you’re right. These viruses, however, have a tendency to start small and explode bigtime. The past flu pandemics started similarly, from what I gather. All that’s needed is mutation to a strain that can infect human to human. And genetics is a powerful thing in nature, mutations in viruses happen constantly (which is why the predominant flu strains change every year).

Infected birds are making their way into Eastern Europe, I believe… not good. Not good at all.

Yes, Steve… I truly hope you’re right. I’m just not willing to bet my childrens’ lives, let alone our global population and economy, on that kind of wishful thinking.

Comment by The MaryHunter — 4/18/2006 @ 2:35 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

M	T	W	T	F	S	S
« Aug				Oct »
			1	2	3	4
5	6	7	8	9	10	11
12	13	14	15	16	17	18
19	20	21	22	23	24	25
26	27	28	29	30